Science of Salmon.org
FOLLOW THE SCIENCE, PROTECT THE SALMON
Alaskan salmon are in crisis — but the story is more complex than social media suggests. While online conversations focus on sensationalized imagery and information, decades of independent research reveal a different story. Climate change, habitat loss, and shifting ocean conditions pose the greatest threats to salmon survival.
The only way to protect salmon for future generations is to let data, not outrage, drive the debate.
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Why We're Speaking Out
Yes, salmon returns are in trouble — but the truth isn’t trending on social media. Today, emotionally charged social media posts are targeting one industry, but the evidence points to climate, habitat, and hydrology as the leading threats to salmon.
Until now, nonprofit Alaska salmon organizations have not been doing their job to inform people about the root causes of decline, which wastes valuable time and resources. While they're leading us down the wrong path with fake ideologies, we can't get to the right solutions.
That's where we come in. When you follow the science, the story changes. Scientifically based decisions are the only way to create meaningful impact.
What are the top contributors to Alaska salmon decline?
Here's what the science says:
1. Shifting Ocean Conditions
Once salmon leave our rivers, they enter a marine world that’s changing fast. Warmer ocean temperatures altered food webs, and predator dynamics have made survival harder — especially for Chinook and chum salmon in western Alaska.
(Sources: NOAA, 2023; NOAA, 2023; NOAA, 2022)
2. Foreign Salmon Hatcheries
Salmon from Russian and Asian hatcheries are increasingly making their way into Alaska’s waters, including the Bering Sea. In 2024, more than half of chum bycatch caught were Russian or Asian hatchery salmon, according to genetic analysis. This abundance of foreign hatcheries salmon also exacerbates limited prey availability, which negatively impacting sockeye, chum and potentially Chinook salmon.
(Sources: NMFS, 2024; ICES, 2024; Wiley, 2021)
3. Disease and Nutrition
Elevated Ichthyophonus infections have been detected in Yukon Chinook salmon in recent years. Additionally, thiamine (vitamin B1) deficiency in salmon diets is currently being investigated as one of the causes of early-life mortality for Chinook salmon.
(Sources: ADFG, 2023; NOAA, 2022)
4. Warming Freshwater and Rusting Rivers
Alaska’s rivers are getting hotter. That stresses juvenile salmon, reduces oxygen levels, and can lead to mass die-offs. Some river systems are hitting critical temperature thresholds in mid-summer — especially where shading and groundwater recharge have been lost. Additionally, permafrost thaw alters water chemistry, turning some rivers orange by releasing acidity and metals into the water. This is also known as “rusting rivers,” which disrupts insect life, salmon food chains, and spawning habitats.
5. Bycatch
Bycatch of Alaska Chinook and chum salmon is a known source of mortality, although it explains only a small fraction of the decline. Chum bycatch in the pollock fishery accounts for, on average, less than 1% of the returns to the middle and upper Yukon and represents less than 7% of the total commercial harvest of Western Alaskan chum. Chinook bycatch accounts for less than 0.6% of upper Yukon returns on average.
(Sources: NOAA, 2025; ADFG 2022)
6. Shrinking Salmon
Chinook salmon are getting smaller. Since the 1970s, adult Chinook have lost 5–7% of their average body length — meaning fewer eggs, smaller returns, and weaker future generations.
(Source: NOAA, 2023)
Quick Salmon Facts
Why are some salmon runs in Alaska shrinking while others are thriving?
Despite unexpected sockeye salmon runs in 2025, other Alaskan salmon species are struggling. Factors such as shifting ocean conditions, disease and nutrition, and rusting rivers are negatively impacting salmon species across Alaska’s oceans and river systems.
Are fisheries in Alaska genuinely managed responsibly?
Under U.S. law, NOAA Fisheries is responsible for managing all marine fisheries in the U.S. NOAA works with federal, state and territorial partners to ensure the fisheries are managed responsibly. Eight regional management councils are also responsible for the fisheries in their region, adding an additional level of management.
How sustainable are the Alaska fisheries?
Scientists regularly monitor fisheries to ensure they are sustainably managed using stock assessments to determine current status of a fish stock, such as overfished or rebuilt. Additionally, many of Alaska’s fisheries are sustainably certified by programs like the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and Certified Seafood International (CSI).
Do salmon really smell their way home?
Yes! Young salmon imprint on the smells associated with their birth stream and use the memories of this smell to guide them back to their birth stream several years later.
Our Mission
We’ve watched the salmon debate become louder, more emotional, and more political — while the real science is pushed aside. We’re here to cut through the noise. To defend truth, transparency, and real data. The future of Alaska, and our salmon, deserve to be driven by facts.
We believe:
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Science, not social media, should drive management.
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Alaskans deserve better than politicized narratives and imported outrage.
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Fisheries should be judged by facts.
What the data shows:
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Researchers have found that Yukon River Chinook salmon are now about 6% smaller than they were in the 1970s, and female salmon produce around 15% fewer eggs. The decline is linked to climate-driven changes in both freshwater and ocean habitats that affect growth and survival.
(Source: USGS, 2023)
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Wild Alaskan salmon are fighting for survival in a crowded ocean. With foreign hatchery fish making up around 40% of the sea’s salmon biomass, Alaska’s wild stocks face shrinking meals, slower growth and fewer young. (Source: ADFG, 2018)
Because if we’re going to protect Alaska’s salmon for the next generation, we need to start by understanding what’s actually happening.